Hospitals are overflowing morgue and emergency services do not handle the influx of victims ... Major world cities, usually lively, stops. Companies deprived quarter workforce - people get sick. Public transport stops work. This is not science fiction - a scenario predicted on the basis of recent research. According to scientists, the pandemic almost inevitable.

These pictures showed new film "Pandemic", shot in the genre of "dokudramy", which outlines the alleged events as if they occur in reality. The authors of the film was made by the corporation BBC.

Major world cities, usually lively, stops. Companies deprived quarter workforce - people get sick. Public transport stops work. Schools closed. Assembly of people banned. All this - measures to contain the disease, which has not been able to contain…

But this is not science fiction, the authors note the film. The basis of projections based on recent research, which are used by Governments of different countries to build their action plans in the event of a pandemic.

In accordance with these plans through deaths in the world will go to millions; global economy will suffer terrible blow, plunge society into chaos.

Pandemic - this is an epidemic of a disease is spreading rapidly and affects many countries. Same film shows how could begin apocalypse XXI century.

Many experts are confident that the strain H5N1 mutations could not be avoided. The U.S. government has already asked its citizens medication and food store that will survive the outbreak. U.S. authorities believe that avian flu can carry about 2 million lives, British authorities are preparing for hundreds of thousands dead.

The victims inflyuentsy become only the elderly and the weakest. However, the human variety of avian influenza acts contrary - especially the most vulnerable people will be aged 20 to 40 years.

The point is that when the virus enters the human body, the immune system activates the release of specific substances in the blood, isolating the virus and suppresses its activity, say experts. But H5N1 is designed in such a way that it is these substances become its breeding ground. And since most active immune system works with young people, they will be primarily at risk.

Meanwhile, a specific vaccine against the virus until it is simply impossible to develop - this work will become effective only when a virus itself. And when that happens, to create an effective vaccine would take 5-6 months.

Moreover, in the world are not adequate vaccine, because the authorities will have to compile lists of those who need it first. Work on these lists - not for the faint-hearted challenge. People not included in the lists, with some likely to condemn to severe disease, if not death. Thus, the assumption that the elderly and very young should be vaccinated at least, because they have either lived the best years of his life, either still too young. Authorities to take very tough decisions, but otherwise nothing.

Meanwhile, the situation with H5N1 pandemic inflyuentsy recalls, happened in 1918, immediately after the First World War. Then the disease, called "Spanish", separation of peace returning to the fronts of the soldiers, and died from it to 50 million people. Recently, scientists found that "Spanish" was also caused by bird flu virus mutate.

Moreover, according to the scientists, a new influenza pandemic is virtually inevitable. The point is that such global outbreaks occur on average three times a century. In XX century they occurred in 1918, 1957 and 1968, and now, according to the WHO, the world closer to a pandemic than at any time since 1968.


12.11.2006,
Victoria Alexandrova
Delovaya Gazeta "Vzglyad"